In just a few days, Myanmar will undertake its first census in 30 years, a project criticized for having the potential to undermine the ongoing peace process and risk further ethnic and religious fragmentation.
After decades of dictatorship, the southeast Asian nation began introducing significant political, economic and social reforms over the past few years, opening up to development assistance from the West. Perhaps one of the largest such projects to-date is the census, a joint $75 million endeavor of the government of Myanmar and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
Conducting a census after decades of dictatorship and seclusion from the rest of the world is integral to getting the country back on the map and building credibility with the international community. While there is no doubt gathering such data is important for Myanmar, there are concerns about the timing of the census and reported flaws in the ethnic classification system being used in the 41-question survey. The classification system is based on an old list of 135 groups created by the military government in the 1980s which critics say does not categorize the population accurately.
The International Crisis Group says in a report that the list creates excessive subdivisions and that it also combines groups without any ethno-linguistic basis. For example, several ethnic groups in Shan state are classified as “Shan” despite significant differences among them. Myanmar is one of the most diverse countries in the world and ethnicity is a complicated and politically sensitive issue.
The outcome of the census will have direct political consequences as the constitution and election laws allocate a certain number of political positions in local government for ethnic groups that meet a specific population quota. If the census is misrepresentative, certain groups may be denied political representation.
The Rohingya, a long disputed ethnic group of Bengali origin residing in northeastern Myanmar, is one likely to be misrepresented or not represented at all. The Myanmar government has denied them citizenship for decades claiming they do not belong in the country.
The Rohingya make up a portion of Myanmar’s growing Muslim community, which the government says makes up about 4 percent of the country’s total population. This is based on old information however, and it is more than likely this number has grown since the last census and is now closer to 10 percent. Critics say the census will likely highlight this increase and further provoke Buddhist extremists who have been responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Muslims in what the international human rights community has equated to acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
Ethnic political parties, ethnically based armed organizations, human rights activists, advocacy groups and foreign governments have issued statements highly critical of the census, some demanding its postponement until further consultation with ethnic communities has taken place. However, a United Nations press release from Feb. 26 reported that representatives from 10 ethnic and civil society groups had agreed to put aside concerns over the categorization of ethnicity until after the data collection process has taken place.
“H.E. Khin Yi, Minister for Immigration and Population emphasized that he greatly valued the views of the ethnic groups and that it was too late to change the coding on the questionnaires. He acknowledged that talks on ethnicity needed to be intensified post-census in order to ensure that all views were being heard and that close cooperation with all parties were instrumental,” the press release said.
In partnership with the government, the U.N. has created a far-reaching awareness raising campaign to educate citizens about the benefits of the census and how it can be a tool for development. Their $75 million budget has allowed them to recruit Myanmar celebrities, most notably, U Zaganar, a famous comedian, to serve as the “Census Ambassador,” and young pop singer He Lay, to lead a national bus tour visiting townships all over the country.
The census promotion tour resembles something of a political campaign with free census paraphernalia for constituents and a census unity song. The arrival of the festive and colorfully decorated census bus into a village resembles something part way between the entrance of a politician and that of a circus. Perhaps it is U Zaganar’s humor that creates this impression, but it certainly is effective at attracting a crowd and capturing attention. The visit of such a beloved figure to poor rural villages will likely win citizen support for the census.
An elderly woman interviewed by UNFPA in Pyinmana village, the first stop on the bus tour, exclaimed, “It’s really great! I’m really happy! It’s a good project for the benefit of the country. I’m thrilled, pleased, and proud of this event.”
Maybe for now villagers are hopeful, but it will take months after the data has been compiled before we see any political repercussions. While the collection of accurate demographic data is crucial for planning and development, utilizing a method that is flawed and divisive on issues of ethnicity, religion, and citizenship, may likely have detrimental effects on Myanmar society. Perhaps what these villagers need is for U Zaganar to start working on a new routine around peace and national reconciliation.
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Lanna Walsh is an international development practitioner specializing in issues of labor rights, migration, and communication. She most recently served as a consultant for Pact in Myanmar and a field coordinator for the International Organization for Migration on the Thai-Burma border. She is currently based in New York pursuing a Master’s degree in International Affairs at Columbia University.
Sources:
1.Mahtani, Shibani. “Myanmar Census Plan Draws Fire.” The Wall Street Journal. 13 February 2014. Web. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304703804579380050319463342
2.“Myanmar Conflict Alert: A Risky Census.” International Crisis Group. 12 February 2014. Web. http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/alerts/2014/myanmar-conflict-alert-a-risky-census.aspx
3.Winn, Patrick. “Myanmar’s upcoming census could spark anti-Muslim violence.” The Global Post. 5 March 2014. Web. http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/myanmar/140304/why-myanmar-s-upcoming-census-could-spark-anti-mus
4.“Myanmar, UNFPA explain importance of census at media campaign event.” UNFPA Myanmar. 10 February 2014. Web. http://countryoffice.unfpa.org/myanmar/2014/02/17/9069/myanmar_unfpa_explain_importance_of_census_at_media_campaign_event/
5.“Ethnic representatives call off postponement of census after talks in Nay Phi Taw.” UNFPA Myanmar. 26 February 2014. Web. http://countryoffice.unfpa.org/myanmar/2014/03/03/9128/ethnic_representatives_calls_off_postponement_of_census_after_talks_in_nay_pyi_taw/
6.“Press Release: ITAB give thumbs up to census preparations in time for Myanmar census.” UNFPA Myanmar. 24 January 2014. Web. http://countryoffice.unfpa.org/myanmar/2014/01/24/8960/press_release_itab_gives_thumbs_up_to_census_preparations_in_time_for_myanmar_census/